In reality, of course, Vajpayee’s overture has as much to do with domestic politics as with his sense of drama. At 78, the elder statesman certainly has an eye on his legacy, which would be ensured if he brought peace to Kashmir. But his peace initiative will also–at least temporarily– give him the upper hand against hard-liners within his own party, the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, who have offered little on Kashmir except occasional rumbles about preemptive strikes. It’s an astute political gamble with four crucial state elections scheduled for later this year. A rabid anti-Pakistan stand hasn’t brought the BJP votes in recent state polls, and any movement toward peace will at least neuter the opposition Congress Party’s criticism of their handling of Kashmir. And most deftly, Vajpayee timed his announcement just days before U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage was to arrive in the region. “Vajpayee realized that the coercive military posture was getting India nowhere,” says a prime ministerial aide. “The country appeared inflexible before the international community, seriously damaging its image.”
It may now be Pakistan’s image that needs some buffing. During his 90-minute audience with President Pervez Musharraf, Armitage pressed him to bring an end to all “cross-border infiltration” by Islamic guerillas across the Kashmiri border. Vajpayee’s gambit has put more pressure on Islamabad to rein in its militants. Pakistan’s early moves–restoring transportation links and diplomatic ties–won’t temper Indian demands for a greater crackdown. “He has put Musharraf and his powerful military to the test,” says a top government official in New Delhi.
Still, both sides will have to do some heavy lifting if they are to arrive at a durable solution to the 55-year-old dispute. “It is such an accident-prone relationship,” says Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to Washington, “any incident could derail the whole process.” But maybe now Musharraf will make some poetic gestures of his own.
